The developing El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming weeks before reaching its peak in December, raising fresh concerns over extreme heat, disrupted rainfall and weather-related risks across the globe.
The warning from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) comes as scientists track unusually warm waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — the key indicator used to measure the strength of El Niño.
The UN weather agency says there is almost a 100 per cent probability that the current El Niño will persist through February 2027, raising the possibility that it could rank among the strongest events recorded since observations began in the mid-20th century.
Ocean temperatures raise alarm
According to the latest WMO assessment, the temperature anomaly in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific increased from about 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C in August.
Scientists expect the anomaly to reach approximately 3.7°C above normal between October and December.
If that forecast materialises, it would surpass the previous record of about 2.6°C recorded during the powerful 2015–2016 El Niño.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo described the current phenomenon as firmly established and strengthening rapidly.
The agency says the unusual intensity is partly explained by the enormous amount of heat stored in the world’s oceans.
Rather than creating additional heat, El Niño redistributes heat already held in the ocean and alters atmospheric circulation, producing major changes in weather patterns.
What does it mean for Kenya?
For Kenya, the warning is particularly significant because El Niño can influence rainfall patterns across East Africa, although its effects are not uniform across the country.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has projected above-normal rainfall in parts of the country during the October-November-December season, with wetter conditions potentially extending into early 2027.
The department has also cautioned that El Niño’s strength alone does not determine how much rain Kenya will receive, because other climate systems — including the Indian Ocean Dipole — play an important role.
This means communities should prepare for the possibility of heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides, particularly in vulnerable areas, even as other parts of the country could experience different conditions.
The threat comes at a time when Kenya remains highly vulnerable to weather shocks. Farmers, pastoralists, transport operators and communities living along rivers and in flood-prone areas could face significant disruption if rainfall becomes unusually intense.
A warning beyond rainfall
The significance of the latest forecast goes beyond whether Kenya receives more rain.
El Niño is associated with changes in global atmospheric circulation that can produce flooding in some regions, drought in others and unusually high temperatures across large parts of the world.
The WMO says the phenomenon is occurring against a backdrop of exceptionally warm global oceans and a warming climate, potentially amplifying the consequences of extreme weather.
That combination has raised concerns about pressure on agriculture, water supplies, ecosystems, infrastructure and public health.
Why December matters
El Niño events generally occur every two to seven years and typically last between nine and 12 months. The current episode is expected to reach its strongest point around December before gradually easing, although its influence could continue into the early months of 2027.
For governments and communities, the message from meteorologists is therefore less about panic and more about preparation.
With the peak still ahead, authorities are being urged to strengthen early-warning systems, prepare for flooding and landslides, protect critical infrastructure and ensure farmers have timely weather information.
For Kenya, the coming months could prove a crucial test of how effectively the country converts climate forecasts into practical disaster preparedness.
The warning is clear: El Niño has not reached its peak yet — and December could bring its most powerful punch.
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