Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr. Fred Matiang’i has emerged as Kenya’s most preferred presidential candidate in the latest Research 8020 National Opinion Poll 2025, released in Nairobi on October 30, 2025.
The nationwide survey reveals a country yearning for change amid mounting dissatisfaction with the direction the nation is taking and the rising cost of living.
According to the findings, 24 percent of Kenyans would vote for Dr. Matiang’i if presidential elections were held today, followed closely by President William Ruto at 21 percent and Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 11 percent.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino each command six percent, while former President Uhuru Kenyatta registered three percent support.
The poll was conducted between September and October 2025 by Research 8020 Limited and interviewed 3,430 respondents across all 47 counties through computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI).
It was entirely funded by the firm and carries a margin of error of ±1.67 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
The release of the survey came just a day after Jubilee Party chairman Jeremiah Kioni unveiled Dr. Matiang’i as the party’s flag bearer also deputizing former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who continues to lead the party.
The announcement appears to have bolstered Jubilee’s political momentum, with the poll placing Matiang’i ahead of all other potential 2027 contenders.
Kenyans Express Discontent with Country’s Direction
The poll reveals that 61 percent of Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with only 19 percent saying it is moving the right way and 20 percent undecided.
Generationally, 64 percent of Gen Z, 63 percent of Millennials, and 57 percent of older voters (Gen X+) expressed dissatisfaction. Counties such as Nyeri, Kirinyaga, and Machakos recorded the highest levels of discontent, with more than 80 percent of respondents in those regions saying the country is off track.
Economic hardship dominates public concern, with 82 percent citing the cost of living as the top issue, followed by unemployment (73 percent), poor healthcare (47 percent), poor roads (40 percent), and corruption (36 percent).
Other concerns include high taxation, poor education standards, and food insecurity.
Despite this disillusionment, the study indicates that 91 percent of Kenyans plan to vote in the 2027 General Election, representing a projected 20 million voters.
Generation Z, which now makes up 51 percent of Kenya’s adult population, displayed the highest enthusiasm for voting at 92 percent, followed closely by Millennials and Generation X+ at 90 percent each.
Matiang’i Leads Across Generations and Counties
Dr. Matiang’i’s support cuts across all age brackets, leading among Gen Z (25 percent), Millennials (23 percent), and Gen X+ (25 percent).
President Ruto follows closely, with support ranging between 18 and 24 percent across generations.
Matiang’i leads in 21 counties, including Nairobi, Mombasa, Busia, Kakamega, and Kisii, while Ruto dominates 20 counties, largely in the Rift Valley, Western, and North Eastern regions such as Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Bomet, Mandera, and Garissa.
Kalonzo Musyoka maintains firm control in the Ukambani region, posting over 60 percent support in Kitui, Makueni, and Machakos, while Rigathi Gachagua leads in Murang’a and Kirinyaga.
Approval Ratings: Governors, Senators, and Women Representatives
The Research 8020 poll also assessed voter satisfaction with county leadership, measuring approval ratings for Governors, Senators, and Women Representatives.
Governors:
At the county level, Murang’a Governor emerged as the most highly rated, enjoying an 83 percent approval rating, followed by Homa Bay (81 percent) and Makueni (78 percent). Lamu (80 percent) and Nyamira (72 percent) also recorded strong approval.
Other counties where residents said they would retain their current governors include Baringo (70 percent), Nairobi (67 percent), Embu (65 percent), and Elgeyo-Marakwet (65 percent). The findings indicate that counties performing well in governance, service delivery, and public participation are likely to see their incumbents re-elected in 2027.
Senators:
Among senators, Makueni again leads the rankings, with 77 percent of respondents saying they would retain their current senator. Nyandarua (75 percent) and Migori (70 percent) follow closely, alongside Uasin Gishu (70 percent) and Turkana (68 percent).
The survey highlights relatively strong approval in regions where senators are seen as vocal and active in representing their counties’ interests in the national arena.
Conversely, some counties such as Isiolo and Tharaka Nithi registered marginal approval ratings around 51 percent, suggesting competitive races ahead.
Women Representatives:
The poll also examined the performance of Women Representatives, with Turkana County leading nationally at 76 percent approval, followed by Bungoma and Kiambu, both at 70 percent. Tana River (69 percent), Murang’a (69 percent), and Kwale (69 percent) also scored highly.
Other counties performing well include Trans Nzoia (66 percent), Kericho (65 percent), and Uasin Gishu (64 percent).
In contrast, several counties, including Homa Bay, Isiolo, and Kitui, posted lower ratings around 51 percent, signaling potential voter shifts in upcoming elections.
Overall, the leadership approval data suggest that counties where local leaders are seen to deliver development, transparency, and community engagement continue to enjoy strong public trust.
The 2025 Research 8020 National Opinion Poll paints a portrait of a nation wrestling with economic pressures and governance challenges but still deeply engaged in democratic participation.
As Kenya heads toward the 2027 General Election, the data positions Fred Matiang’i, William Ruto, and Kalonzo Musyoka as the main contenders, with the economy, unemployment, and cost of living set to shape political debate.
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