Raila Odinga’s 2027 political gamble is at a critical stage of make-or-break, as both sides of the political divide—the Gachagua-Kalonzo axis and President William Ruto—are jostling to secure him for their victory.
Placing the bets is proving to be tougher and trickier for the ODM leader, with each option promising a resounding impact on the country’s political landscape.
The widespread political deal between President Ruto and Odinga presents a significant risk, potentially exposing ODM into a murky waters if it materializes.
Since taking office in 2022, President Ruto’s approval ratings have plummeted, and with the 2027 general elections approaching, they continue to decline.
Against this backdrop, reports suggest that a pact between Ruto and Raila has already been finalized, with only formalities—framed as ongoing “consultations” with Raila’s supporters—remaining.
This echoes the March 18, 2002, merger between KANU and the National Development Party (NDP), where NDP was effectively absorbed into KANU, forming “New KANU” under President Daniel Moi.
In a past interview, when asked what he would do if Moi reneged on their agreement and betrayed him, Raila famously remarked, “Only a fool would enter an arrangement without a fallback plan.”
The planned UDA-ODM alliance is unfolding amid a mass political realignment in the Mt. Kenya region, where a significant faction has broken away from Ruto’s grip, leaving a void that ODM may struggle to fill.
Meanwhile, Kenyans have expressed growing dissatisfaction with the current regime, blaming its policies for worsening their economic hardships.
Adding an intriguing twist to the political landscape, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has called on Raila to join him in securing Mt. Kenya’s six million votes to clinch the presidency.
Gachagua’s appeal has unsettled Ruto’s inner circle, as many of his close allies are banking on Raila’s endorsement to secure Kenya Kwanza’s re-election.
Much like the unexpected Gen Z-led protests in June 2024 that shook the government, Raila now finds himself at a political crossroads.
Within ODM, opinions are sharply divided. Some party members support aligning with the government, while others oppose any pact with UDA, fearing it could stain ODM’s image—just as the Uhuru-Raila Handshake did in 2018, ultimately burdening ODM with the political baggage of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration in the 2022 elections.
Siaya Governor James Orengo has strongly opposed ODM’s potential alliance with UDA, warning that it could tarnish the party’s reputation and erode public trust.
Speaking in Siaya Town during the burial of Mama Leah Obiero, Orengo cautioned against the lure of government power, comparing it to low-hanging fruit that may be poisoned.
“I warn those rushing into this deal to study history—look at what happened to Tom Mboya, Peter Oloo Aringo, and Dr. Robert Ouko,” he said.
Orengo insists that Raila’s consultation process must be respected and that any decision must reflect the true wishes of ODM supporters and the broader Kenyan electorate.
Similarly, Kisumu Governor and acting ODM party leader Anyang’ Nyong’o has dismissed the idea of ODM propping up the UDA government, stating that the party cannot be in a perpetual firefighting mode to clean up the administration’s blunders.
“We stepped in to put out the fire once, but you cannot keep making mistakes and expect us to always be on standby to extinguish them,” Nyong’o said during the burial of Prof. Allan Ogot in Gem, Siaya County.
Meanwhile, in Mt. Kenya, a growing faction is rallying behind Raila as their best bet for the 2027 presidency, primarily as a form of political retribution against Ruto, whom they accuse of betrayal.
Analysts suggest that if Mt. Kenya leaders shelve their presidential ambitions and unite behind an outsider—similar to the lessons learned from the 1992 Kibaki-Matiba split that handed Moi victory with only 34% of the vote—Ruto could face an early exit.
According to political observers, Ruto’s declining popularity has left him heavily dependent on Raila’s political influence for survival. Without Raila’s backing, his prospects for re-election appear bleak.
“Raila is the political life support machine for Ruto that if it is switched off, his political life will come to and an abrupt end,” said Gachagua.
Others argue that if Raila reciprocates the loyalty Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has shown him in the past three presidential elections (2013, 2017, and 2022)—including the last one, where Kalonzo supported him despite not being his running mate—then, with Gachagua’s support, Kalonzo could emerge as a formidable candidate and clinch the presidency.
What remains for Ruto’s regime is the heavy task of rebuilding and winning back public confidence—or else, it is bound to hit a dead end in the next elections.
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