Socio-political commentator Billy Mijungu.PHOTO:POOL
The upcoming by-election in Mbeere North is more than just another electoral contest; it is a defining moment for the political landscape of Mount Kenya and, by extension, the broader national power structure.
At the heart of this battle lies the ongoing struggle for dominance between President William Ruto and his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.
For months, political watchers have speculated about cracks within the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the shifting allegiances in the Mount Kenya region.
Since assuming office, Gachagua has styled himself as the region’s political custodian, advocating for a more localized approach to governance.
This by-election will be the first tangible test of whether his influence has taken root or if Ruto still holds an unchallenged grip on the Mountain.
If Gachagua’s preferred candidate triumphs, it will send a clear signal that he is effectively carving out an independent power base—an outcome that would significantly bolster his standing in future political negotiations.
It would be an unmistakable warning to Ruto that the unwavering support he once enjoyed in the region is no longer guaranteed.
On the flip side, should Ruto’s candidate emerge victorious, it would reaffirm his dominance in Mount Kenya, dismissing the notion that Gachagua has the political weight to chart his own course.
Mbeere North is a constituency where both national and regional factors will come into play.
While Gachagua’s grassroots strategy and his rumored new party—set to be unveiled in May—could sway voters, Ruto’s well-oiled campaign machinery and financial muscle remain formidable.
UDA’s established dominance in the region gives the President’s camp a strong advantage, but a potential anti-establishment wave could still tip the scales in Gachagua’s favor.
Recently ousted Attorney General Justin Muturi, a key figure from Embu County, could play a spoiler role—either by running himself or backing a rival candidate aligned against Ruto.
Beyond Mbeere North, other looming mini-polls in Ugunja, Banisa, and Magarini, as well as four ward contests, will collectively shape Kenya’s political trajectory.
How UDA fares in these elections will be an early indicator of whether Ruto’s support base remains intact or if emerging factions are beginning to erode his influence.
The broader question remains: Is Ruto’s broad-based government, which has drawn in former political rivals, still resonating with the electorate, or is there a growing appetite for alternative leadership?
While this single by-election may not be the ultimate test of Gachagua’s growing influence, it will offer critical insights into Mount Kenya’s shifting political landscape.
A Gachagua-backed win would be a declaration of his rising relevance, positioning him as a force to watch ahead of 2027.
Conversely, a Ruto-backed victory would cement the President’s hold over the region, at least for now, and cast doubt on Gachagua’s ability to challenge the status quo.
One thing is certain—this by-election will not be just another routine vote.
It will be a crucial political moment, offering a glimpse into the evolving power dynamics that could define Kenya’s next general election.
All eyes are now on Mbeere North, where the battle for Mount Kenya’s soul is about to play out in full view of the nation.
Billy Mijungu is a political analyst and a Migori Senatorial aspirant. He unsuccessfully vied for the post in the 2002 general elections.
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